Over the last 20 years.. Underdogs of 4.5 points or more have covered 9 out of 12 times and 6 have won outright. The Pats won outright in 2001. Pats are 3-4 ATS, but 1-4 ATS as a favorite. The last 3 dogs in the 4.5-5 range have won outright. Dk if it means anything but we’ll find out.